Impacts of climate change on erosion of a watershed: Simulation of scenarios

  • Thatiana Aparecida Lelis UFV
  • Maria Lúcia Calijuri UFV
  • Aníbal Santiago da Fonseca UFV
  • Dario Cardoso de Lima UFV
Keywords: soil loss, runoff, erosion

Abstract

Climate change set to occur in the coming years should have severe effects on erosion process, as factors leading to intensification of the peaks of rainfall and increasing temperature on the entire planet. Several studies have been performed to estimate climate change scenarios. This work was implemented in the Sao Bartolomeu's watershed, in Minas Gerais’ Forest Zone. From the A1B scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that set a projection for the global mean warming of Earth's surface, sediment production and runoff were estimated using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The simulated scenarios for projected climate changes that could happen in the next 90 years are quite alarming, with soil loss and runoff rates production much higher than those currently found in the cultures analyzed, reaching up to three times more in a critical increase in the rainfall volume and higher peaks of precipitation.

Author Biographies

Thatiana Aparecida Lelis, UFV
Doutora em Engenharia Civil pela Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Maria Lúcia Calijuri, UFV
Professora Titular do Depto de Engenharia Civil da Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Aníbal Santiago da Fonseca, UFV
Mestrando em Engenharia Civil pela Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Dario Cardoso de Lima, UFV
Professor Titular do Depto de Engenharia Civil da Universidade Federal de Viçosa
Published
22/08/2011
Section
Papers